The history of the crypto markets over the past 12 years is being examined by a well-known analyst to predict how this month’s performance of digital assets is likely to pan out.
Popular cryptocurrency trader Benjamin Cowen informs his 766,000 YouTube subscribers in a new video update that Bitcoin (BTC) has seen bloodshed in nine out of the last twelve September.
As per analyst “If we go back and look at all the prior Septembers, just going back to 2010, you can see in fact that all but three of them have been red and the only ones that were green gave about 2.5% move to the upside, a 6% and a 15% move to the upside.”
In comparison with ETH, Cowen claims that the historical data for Ethereum (ETH), the most popular smart contract platform, also exhibits a similar tendency.
“We could also take a look at other things, like Ethereum, and question whether those are producing the same kind of results, and generally that is correct statistically.”
Cowen predicts a -12% movement for ETH in September. He categorically specified that not all Septembers are red. However, historically speaking, couple of Septembers were in green, but on average, you would expect it to be red.
What September Looks like For Crypto Market?
Looking at the trajectory of the total market capitalization of cryptos, Cowen analysed the prior year’s data and demonstrated the historical September woes of the asset class.
Looking at the data, he said that the only month that has experienced a decline since 2010 is September.
The last time September was positive for the entire asset class was in 2016 and 2015. However, September has not been a terrific month for the last five years.
If you look back to say 2017, the average return in September is approximately 7.5% to the downside. In the past, September has not been a favorable month for cryptocurrency.
Do we absolutely need a red month as a result of this? No, it does not, and the reason for this is that just because something occurs frequently, it does not necessitate that it also occurs frequently.
Although the overall trend in cryptocurrency has been bearish during September, Cowen points out that it’s still feasible for the crypto market to end the month in green.